By How Much Has Saunders Under-Performed His Skill Set? (2 of 3)

When we employ the Flowchart Profiler, we identify a player’s “skill set” profile by running through three questions in order:

  • Does he consistently hit the ball hard in the air? (Power)
  • Does he hit line drives for hits-in-play? (Line drives)
  • Does he demonstrate plate skills to draw walks and avoid strikeouts? (Plate skills)

Michael Saunders for his entire career was yes-no-no or Third Tier.  For his last three seasons only, he was yes-yes-no or Second Tier.

So we’ll look at where his performance falls on the “normal distribution” for both, since we aren’t absolutely sure which “skill set” he falls into.

First, here’s the chart for his career numbers:


And here’s the chart for his last three years only:


So we have two ways to view Saunders:

  • A moderately-talented hitter who way under-performed 2009-2011 but has now caught up to where he should be (.754 mean; .743 2012-14 actual performance); or
  • A quite-talented hitter who ought to have upside (.797 mean; .743 actual performance).

Can we figure out which one it might be?


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