Game 99 + Minors Rewind: Elias Finds Met Life

met2084548149_fac9d963e1_z== Run of three bad starts ends ==

You can’t really tell a good Roenis Elias start from a bad Roenis Elias start just by looking at the location chart.

He’s going to leave some pitches centered over the plate, for good or ill, every time.

So you have to go to the “outcome” chart.  Is he getting “deception” or is he getting “tattooed”?

Two weeks ago we had one that looked like this:

re4The five red circles in the middle of the plate and up in the zone were three doubles and two singles.

Here’s Monday night against the Mets:

%relocation.phpThe seven pitches in the red outline: two swinging strikes, two popup outs, three fouled off.

In other words, nothing tattooed.

When he gets weak contact off that stuff, he’ll succeed.  Monday night he gave up zero extra-base hits.

But it’s all dependent on the deception.

===

To everyone’s great joy or consternation (or mixture thereof), Dustin Ackley — presumably on the verge of being traded or supplanted at the looming deadline — is red hot in July: .360/.385/.460.  You can tell from the math, however, that his streak is mostly BABIP-driven (.450).  He has five doubles and two walks in the 15-game stretch.

Some will fret that the little run will unwisely save his job.  I doubt it.  The M’s absolutely need a RH-hitting outfielder, and when Michael Saunders is healthy that leaves no role for Ackley.

Plus, we said during the off-season that Ackley needed to keep his BB-rate around 9% to even sniff success.  Instead, he’s down to 6.6% so far.  He is not a valuable player at that rate.

===

Erasmo Ramirez will start Tuesday’s game, and the regular rotation has been pushed back a day, so it’s likely that Tom Wilhelmsen will start Wednesday’s game — and could be transitioned to a regular starting role.

Justin Smoak was sent back down to make room for e-RAM.

===

Daily Prospect-palooza

  • You may recall Nick Franklin getting hit in the face with a broken bat a few years back, and then D.J. Peterson incurring a broken jaw from a pitch last year.  Now it’s another first-round pick Alex Jackson suffering an injury from a fly ball hitting him in the face.  Apparently it’s not super-serious (along the lines of a broken nose), but it will keep him out for a while.  Danger zone for high draft picks.
  • Yes, Jesus Montero has been hot (14th HR Monday night).  But he’s not an outfielder and won’t ever be.  Yes, Ty Kelly is hot (13th HR Monday night).  He’s been getting time in the outfield and could get a shot if the M’s whiff in the trade department.  He’d have to be added to the 40-man roster, but that’s doable.
  • It was warm with the wind blowing out in Adelanto, but High Desert was in a low-scoring affair anyway.  The Mavericks got solo homers from Jabari Henry and Jordy Lara, but that was it in a 3-2 loss.
  • Clinton scratched out a win behind a solid start from Blake Holovach (despite a few extra walks): 6.1 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 6 K.
  • Brazilian teen Daniel Missaki didn’t go deep into his first start for Pulaski since July 1: 2.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 3 K.
  • But the P-M’s came back on a game-tying two-run homer by Jose Leal in the bottom of the 9th, and went on to win the game in the 10th.  It was Leal’s first in Pulaski after getting one earlier in the year in Arizona.
  • Speaking of Arizona, despite being overshadowed by Jackson’s face-catch, Lachlan Fontaine had a big hit — a two-run homer in the 8th for the go-ahead runs.  It was the second of the year for the young Canadian.
  • And also in Arizona, Ramon Morla, the former infielder who had only been a pitcher for about a month, ended up with elbow damage and will undergo Tommy John surgery.  He had been throwing mid-to-upper 90s and blowing hitters away.  The brass says they expect the experiment will continue when he comes back.
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2 thoughts on “Game 99 + Minors Rewind: Elias Finds Met Life

  1. Comparing left fielders: Dustin Ackley is worth 0.8 WAR this season. Shin-Soo Choo is at 0.0. Matt Kemp is at -0.5,

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