Trade Target Brainstorm: Marlon Byrd (2. Numbers)

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== He was a hot prospect … in 2001 ==

Often I think it’s interesting to look at where a guy started out as a prospect.  Marlon Byrd was a very good one.

Year Age G HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Strong Prospect > 100
1999 21 “+1” 65 4.66% 10.04% 19.35% 0.239 25.09% 88 99 87
2000 22 “+1” 133 2.92% 8.76% 18.90% 0.206 18.90% 91 102 93
2001 23 “+1” 137 4.81% 8.93% 18.90% 0.239 15.98% 110 114 124
2002 24 “+1” 136 2.49% 7.64% 17.44% 0.179 16.28% 89 96 85

His 2001 season was very strong across the board, and showed his potential to be an “all-around” hitter: one who hits for power and draws walks, but without striking out a lot.  Nevertheless, there was a bit of a warning sign as he dropped in every category when in AAA at age-24.

What the chart doesn’t show is his stolen bases.  He had 41 in 2000 and 32 in 2001.  No wonder he was a hot prospect.  Then they just disappeared into the ether and have never come back.  He has maxed at 11 in the majors.

===

Here are his traditional stats in the majors.  As we noted in part 1, he didn’t really get off the ground until he got to Texas in 2007.

Year Age Tm G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2002 24 PHI 10 36 35 8 2 0 1 1 0 2 1 8 .229 .250 .371 .621 66
2003 25 PHI 135 553 495 150 28 4 7 45 11 1 44 94 .303 .366 .418 .784 111
2004 26 PHI 106 378 346 79 13 2 5 33 2 2 22 68 .228 .287 .321 .608 54
2005 27 TOT 79 259 229 61 15 2 2 26 5 1 19 50 .266 .323 .376 .698 87
2006 28 WSN 78 228 197 44 8 1 5 18 3 3 22 47 .223 .317 .350 .667 76
2007 29 TEX 109 454 414 127 17 8 10 70 5 3 29 88 .307 .355 .459 .814 112
2008 30 TEX 122 462 403 120 28 4 10 53 7 2 46 62 .298 .380 .462 .842 122
2009 31 TEX 146 599 547 155 43 2 20 89 8 4 32 98 .283 .329 .479 .808 106
2010 ★ 32 CHC 152 630 580 170 39 2 12 66 5 1 31 98 .293 .346 .429 .775 105
2011 33 CHC 119 482 446 123 22 2 9 35 3 2 25 78 .276 .324 .395 .719 96
2012 34 TOT 47 153 143 30 2 0 1 9 0 3 5 31 .210 .243 .245 .488 33
2013 35 TOT 147 579 532 155 35 5 24 88 2 4 31 144 .291 .336 .511 .847 137
2014 36 PHI 92 381 353 93 20 2 18 52 1 0 24 109 .263 .315 .484 .799 120
13 Yrs 1342 5194 4720 1315 272 34 124 585 52 28 331 975 .279 .334 .429 .764 103
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 7/12/2014.

***

You can see that he doesn’t exactly have a strong track record of playing more than 150 games or getting 500 plate appearances.  The four times he’s done it are highlighted.  You’ll note that each time he did it he had a good season.  This little fact will also come into play later.

===

Now let’s look at our designer “Brainstorm” stats.  The four columns with blue highlighting are keyed to the 10-year MLB average, which is set at 100.  The three columns with red highlighting are our own measure of “plate skills” (“PSA+” for avoiding non-random outs), “offensive production” (“Conv+” for producing non-random offense) and the composite of the two.

The rows with gray highlighting had too few games and too little data to draw any real conclusions.

Age G HR%+ BB%+ K%+ XBH%+ PSA+ Conv+ Comp
2002 24 10 103 33 77 107 50 88 38
2003 25 135 47 95 106 90 92 92 83
2004 26 106 49 69 100 68 70 79 49
2005 27 79 29 87 93 94 79 85 63
2006 28 78 81 115 85 79 95 86 81
2007 29 109 82 76 92 99 79 95 74
2008 30 122 80 119 125 117 125 114 139
2009 31 146 124 64 109 139 94 115 108
2010 ★ 32 152 71 59 114 108 81 97 78
2011 33 119 69 62 110 88 77 90 67
2012 34 47 24 39 87 25 35 55 -10
2013 35 147 154 64 62 142 73 108 81
2014 36 91 177 76 42 133 71 103 74

===

We can see that there were actually four versions of Byrd.

  • 03-07 Byrd had a low K-rate but struggled to produce offense.
  • 08-09 Byrd briefly put everything together (probably with some pharmaceutical assistance).
  • 10-12 Byrd went downhill again (despite pharmaceutical assistance).
  • 13-14 Byrd re-invented himself with a high K-rate but big-time power (uncertainty as to pharmaceutical role).

The 2014 version would be the one coming to Seattle, should he come.  Is he worth it under the circumstances?

Next part here.

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