== The Mariners have THREE first-round draft picks! (if you go by June 2013) ==
I was searching around a bit with respect to Hawtin Buchanan, the Ole Miss reliever the Mariners took in the 20th round of the draft.
It turns out he only pitched 11.0 IP all season, and had an ERA of 8.18. And three games into the College World Series, he hasn’t appeared. Nor did he appear in the super-regional; or the regional; or the SEC tournament.
In fact, he hasn’t pitched in competition since a 16-9 game against Arkansas State on May 13, in which he went 0.2 IP and gave up 5 ER.
And it turns out that one year ago he was considered a first-round draft pick.
Wait … what?
OK, well Hawtin is a big guy who throws hard, but is kind of raw and wild.
And here’s the thing:
- First 10 appearances of the year: 9.2 IP, 0 ER
- Last 2 appearances of the year: 1.1 IP, 9 ER
That’s how you end up with an 8.18 ERA despite 10 consecutive outings without an earned run. And, I guess, how your coach decides not to use you in any of the important games down the stretch.
But the most interesting thing I found was this mock draft from June of 2013 — one year ago.
#2 overall: Alex Jackson. Mariners got him at #6, of course.
#19 overall: Brady Aiken. He ended up at #1. He did have a velocity spike that made his stock rise considerably.
#20 overall: Hawtin Buchanan. Yes, the M’s Buchanan with the 8.18 ERA. He was deemed “a bit of a gamble” to take late-first-round. A year later, he was 20th all right. 20th round, not 20th pick.
#21 overall. Gareth Morgan. And another Mariner! The guy Seattle took at #74.
#22 overall: Aaron Nola. He ended up going right after Jackson at #7.
So. A year ago, Morgan and Buchanan were lumped in with Aiken and Nola. Obviously, a lot changed in the meantime, but it’s an interesting discovery.
Based on that June 2013 assessment, the Mariners got three of the top 21 players!
We don’t know what Buchanan’s status is, since Ole Miss is still alive in the CWS. He may choose to try to regain his stature by coming back to college for his senior season. But seniors don’t have any bonus leverage, so I’m guessing he’ll go ahead and sign even if it’s just for the standard $100,000.
And it’s worth noting that in 2010 the M’s took a chance on a big (6-6, 235) SEC pitcher (Auburn) who had lousy college stats (6.49 ERA). Stephen Kohlscheen is now in AAA and has a 2.16 ERA with 1.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 on the year.
That doesn’t mean the same thing will happen with Buchanan, but it’s interesting to think about.