Bonus Squalls 05/20/14: The More the Merrier

1024px-Ebenezer_Colls_-_Sailboats_in_a_squall== More news, more notes, more navigation ==

News: Mariners sign Todd Coffey

Compass Reading: Another Day, Another Rehab Guy Off the Scrap Heap

Here is a guy who is pretty much league-average:

Year HR% SO% BB% XBH%
8 Yrs 2.6% 17.2% 7.2% 7.7%
MLB Averages 2.6% 17.8% 8.4% 7.8%

He’s had two TJ surgeries.  I guess the first one is for practice these days.

Anyway, when he’s healthy, he’s pretty much your replacement-level player, ranging between -0.8 and +0.9 Fangraphs WAR.

A right-handed version of Joe Beimel?  Seems about right.

Of course, there is value in replacement-level players.

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News: James Paxton and Taijuan Walker throw

Compass Reading: Can’t Get Here Too Soon

Brandon Maurer still hasn’t figured it out, and Chris Young is like the cartoon characters who run off the cliff and keep running half way across the canyon until they realize that there’s no ground underneath anymore.

So, yeah.  Let’s get these two healthy.

Paxton threw 53 pitches and Walker threw 35.  Paxton is apparently several days ahead of Walker, but both are aiming for a June return.

Shannon Drayer has video of Walker’s simulated game here.

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News: Mock drafts emerging

Compass Reading: Still No Good Reading on No. 6

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal says the Mariners are interested in N.C. State shortstop Trea Turner with the No. 6 pick because Seattle has “needs at shortstop.”  Well, Brad Miller hasn’t been too good so far, but the M’s actually have four top young players at short at AA and higher, plus a sprinkling of other guys who can play there.

Turner seems to be rising back up draft boards after dropping earlier, and he’s a possibility that high — but not because the Mariners “need” a young guy at short.  Oh well.

The earlier word was that Turner was a glove wizard with speed, and not a ton of power, but now he’s touted as a good hitter who may not stick at short.

Anyway, the mock-draft folks have the Mariners going all kinds of different ways:

MLB.com: Vanderbilt RH starter Tyler Beede

Baseball America: LSU RH starter Aaron Nola

Minor League Ball: U. of San Francisco OF Bradley Zimmer

MLB Draft Insider: Nola

My sense has been either Beede or Nola, based on the Mariners’ history of picking relatively polished college guys in the upper part of the draft.  None of the hitters really fits the bill, and the top high school arms are likely to be gone.  One or the other of the SEC guys is almost certain to be there, though.

East Carolina RHP Jeff Hoffman, who was slated as a top-5 pick before being sidelined by TJ surgery. could still end up with the M’s as well.  Given that TJ surgery is sort of like brushing your teeth for pitchers these days.  Routine.

But we also know that clubs deliberately spread false rumors to try to get the outcome they want, so there’s no way to be sure who’s interested in whom.

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5 thoughts on “Bonus Squalls 05/20/14: The More the Merrier

  1. I don’t follow the MLB draft because of the delayed gratification, but i can’t help but see the name Michael Conforto down the lists as the “best college hitter” outfielder that can hit for power and average. Is there a flaw in his game that is dropping him down the lists? Or is it just that the pitchers have higher upsides?

    I have lots of complaints on how the Mariners do things, but I guess I can’t complain about their drafting the last few years. The players are advancing and making it to the big leagues at a very high rate (even if they are stalling out once they get there). But Conforto looks like someone the M’s would be interested in, even if he isn’t the right handed power outfielder answer they have been looking for.

  2. Conforto is a good hitter, and his eye at the plate has really taken off this year. He’s not really a HR hitter though, so how good a pure hitter does he have to be in order to hold down a corner OF spot? Much as Nick Swisher was a good middle-of-the-first pickup because he’s not spectacular but just keeps hitting, that’s what you’re looking for with Conforto. We COULD draft him 6th – but he wouldn’t be likely to make slot money, which means we could roll that extra million or so into another pick later on to persuade a HS player or two to give up college.

    I’m curious to see what we do with the draft. I agree with Jim that Nola or Beede are likely our targets at 6 if we wanna pay something like slot value. Maaaaybe Touki or Freeland jumps in there. I would be surprised to see any of the teen bats, unless we take a lower-ranked one to again roll money into more players.

    Most likely it’ll be an arm, unless all 5 spots before us are arms and we have our choice of bats. That would be interesting.

    ~G

    • Thanks, Gordon!
      Conforto has a lot of positives, but they seem more like supporting-role positives that might be a bit of a stretch for that high in the draft. But I don’t rule him out. After the top few, opinions are all over the map on this draft.

      • Hey, Spec — what would be your take on grabbing Gettys at #6, paying him as a #15-20 (the highest most expect him to go now) and using the extra to get a better-than-slot guy later? I guess I’m still looking at his upside and saying it’s a decent bet given how the system is doing right now.

  3. Bat — I could see something like that, since there’s a perceived gap between the very top guys and the ones likely to be there at No. 6. But the Hoffman injury gives them that opening too. Given the way so many guys are bouncing back from TJ, picking Hoffman at No. 6 could get them top-5 talent at reduced cost if they’re inclined to gamble. But this regime so far has made fairly safe college picks in the first round, so that’s probably why folks are anticipating Beede or Nola in the mock drafts.

    Always good to get your thoughts, Bat.

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