Game 41 + Minors Rewind: Law of Averages Enforcment Officers Show Up



== Chris Young is informed of his rights ==

Well, we’ve been saying for some time that Young’s high-walk, low-strikeout approach was unlikely to hold up over the long haul.

Again, it would be one thing if his approach indicated a special ability to induce weak contact and thus sustain a low BABIP.

That is, if he was demonstrating a skill that has a lasting ability to deny the conversion of batted balls into base hits.

And he does have that — up to a point.  His career BABIP-against is better than average over almost 4000 batters faced.  So there’s something there.

But his 2014 BABIP against is fifty points better than his career figure, which is, itself, fifty points better than average.  Had he discovered something that allow a sub-.200 BABIP-against to be sustainable?  I didn’t think so, because his HR-against rate and XBH-against rates have actually been above his career averages.  His HR-per-fly-ball rate has been the same.

So it certainly didn’t seem that he was keeping guys from hitting the ball with authority.  He was just getting fortunate bounces, and eventually that will catch up with you.

Friday it did.

In fact, Young was fortunate to end up with only five earned runs after scattering six doubles and two homers, with no strikeouts and zero swing-and-miss pitches.


It was one of the rare times this year that pitching actually denied a win to a decent offensive showing.

Indeed, when Michael Saunders singled to lead off the 9th and went to second on a wild pitch, the Mariners had an excellent shot at tying.  Robinson Cano at the dish.  But: groundball, popup, groundball, ballgame.


  • Saunders hit second after James Jones and had three hits.  He’s now 16-for-51 (.314) hitting first or second.
  • Dustin Ackley in May: .286/.375/.595.  The homer binge won’t last, but the drawing-walks-and-hitting-it-hard might.  But we’ve said that before.
  • But … Corey Hart in May: .169/.234/.220.  Bleh!  Sure, a .200 BABIP makes it worse, but striking out a ton and no power.
  • Hyper-detailed boxscore here.


Yesterday, we noted the Mariners’ reported interest in Heath Bell.  He signed with the Orioles.

James Paxton is slated to throw a two-inning simulated game Saturday, with Taijuan Walker throwing a bullpen.  A rehab assignment would be next for Paxton.

Also, a rehab assignment will come soon for Logan Morrison, and it will last the full amount of time.  What they do with him then is uncertain.


Daily Prospect-palooza

  • Alas, Andrew Carraway gave up 5 ER without retiring a batter, and Tacoma was down 7-0 in the 1st.  It didn’t get much better from there, except that Abraham Almonte only struck out twice.  Sorry, Abe.  Old habits die hard.
  • AA Jackson also got pummelled.
  • But — better news — Ivy Leaguer Dario Pizzano, pride of the Columbia Lions and of faithful commenter moethedog, got the promotion from High-A.  He started in LF and went 0-for-4 but drew a walk.
  • Those still in High Desert got a win for Dylan Unsworth: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 7 K.
  • Henry had three hits, including a triple.
  • Clinton lost both ends of a double-header, despite Edwin Diaz fanning seven in 5.2 IP in the opener.  Then Seon Gi Kim pitched four scoreless as the starter in the second game, but it didn’t hold up.
  • Nevertheless, the LumberKings got a feature story in Sports Illustrated for their miracle comeback from a 17-1 deficit last week.  Video taken by Marcus Littlewood‘s wife of the game-tying grand slam is online here.

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