Stat Portrait: Pitching 04/26/14

stat portrait

== Digging in on the arms ==

Who’s on the leaderboards?

  • Felix 6th in WHIP with 0.82
  • Felix 6th in BB/9 with 1.02
  • Felix 6th in K/9 with 10.95
  • Felix tied for 7th in IP with 35.1
  • Felix 4th in strikeouts with 43
  • Felix tied for 4th in games started with 5
  • Felix 4th in K/BB ratio with 10.75
  • Felix 7th in FIP with 2.26

On the anti-leaderboards:

  • Erasmo tied for 6th in losses with 3
  • Felix tied for 3rd in wild pitches with 3

===

Here are some traditional stats:

#P PAge ERA SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
LgAvg 15 28.8 3.81 6 208 198 98 88 21 74 184 103 3.81 1.310 8.6 0.9 3.2 8.0 2.48
SEA 16 28.1 3.58 4 193.2 165 88 77 24 84 173 110 4.30 1.286 7.7 1.1 3.9 8.0 2.06
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/26/2014.

***

So Mariner pitchers are better than league-average in ERA, but worse than average in FIP.  Being slightly above-average in allowing walks and allowing HR is what accounts for that.

===

Here are batting-against stats:

PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip
LgAvg 886 792 98 198 40 4 21 15 5 .250 .318 .391 .709 .299
SEA 815 711 88 165 31 6 24 14 5 .232 .316 .394 .709 .271
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/26/2014.

***

So you don’t have to do the math, league-average ISO is .141, Mariners ISO-allowed is .162.  That, and the BABIP-allowed that is 28 points below average, confirms the FIP indication that the Mariners have been fortunate on the ERA front.

In other words, it could have been worse.  M’s pitchers have gotten away with fewer hits and fewer runs than objectively they “should have.”

Their OPS-against is right on league-average, but that’s only due to the advantageous BABIP.

As it happens, though, the fortunate streak hasn’t helped much due to the moribund offense.

===

And ratios:

HR% SO% BB% XBH% GB/FB GO/AO IP% LD% HR/FB
LgAvg 2.4% 20.8% 8.4% 7.4% 0.86 1.14 67% 23% 7.4%
SEA 2.9% 21.2% 10.3% 7.5% 0.78 1.01 64% 24% 9.0%
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/26/2014.

***

Noteworthy here is that the Mariners might be a bit on the unfortunate side on HR-per-fly-ball, since they are a bit above-average there.  If that evens out, it would bring down that ISO-against figure which so far is mostly driven by homers (note that total XBH% is average).

===

Now the Brainstorm Designer Stats, in order of IP.  The four middle columns are rate stats re-scaled to the 10-year MLB average equal to 100.  The three right columns are my stats measuring (1) getting non-random outs; (2) preventing non-random offense; and (3) combining the two.  So a number on the far right over 100 is what you look for.  The names in green on the bottom have even less data than the ones above, so there’s not much meaningful there.

HR%+ BB%+ K%+ XBH%+ PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Felix Hernandez 110 163 151 78 178 127 205
Roenis Elias* 128 43 88 91 79 98 77
Erasmo Ramirez -31 68 90 57 70 72 42
Chris Young 92 14 63 109 47 91 38
Dominic Leone 113 65 112 112 107 117 124
James Paxton* 6 140 147 69 150 111 160
Danny Farquhar 200 31 106 200 109 148 157
Yoervis Medina 11 -7 111 136 59 104 64
Joe Beimel* 200 63 90 126 105 129 133
Tom Wilhelmsen 105 -36 55 40 5 49 -45
Fernando Rodney 200 -11 132 162 96 162 158
Charlie Furbush* 70 78 76 112 87 102 89
Brandon Maurer 200 38 122 200 122 156 178
Blake Beavan -321 200 30 24 66 46 12
Lucas Luetge* -633 -60 98 -82 -86 -150 -336
Hector Noesi -494 200 163 -269 81 -614 -634

When we ran our hitting stat portrait, only Corey Hart measured up as hitting above-average at the time.  Not so with the pitchers.  Of course, there’s also a smaller amount of data, so you can’t draw too many conclusions.

Needless to say, Felix looks dominant, as he should.  And the rest of the “rotation”? — pretty much what you’d expect.  Paxton was off to a great start.  Brandon Maurer’s single appearance was very promising.  But Elias and Young have been pretty dependent on good fortune.

In the bullpen, Rodney has been white-knuckle and then some (15 baserunners in 7.1 IP), but he’s given up only one extra-base hit (a double), so he’s not getting hit hard yet, and he grades out pretty well.  Similarly Beimel hasn’t been hit hard despite not appearing to have much to offer.

Leone and Farquhar have struggled with BB-allowed, but have been solid otherwise.  Wilhelmsen has struggled even more with BB-allowed, and has not been solid otherwise.

Maybe that pecking order is changing, since Wilhelmsen hasn’t appeared in the last three games, and it was Medina in the 8th on Friday night.

Leone should be moving up pecking-order-wise, but he’s yet to enter the game in the 6th or later with the lead.  Maybe we’ll start to see that.  It’s interesting, though, that he’s already 5th on the team in innings pitched.

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