MB 100 | Top 40 | No. 34 Gabriel Guerrero, OF

34== Nephew of Vlad, but not impaling anyone yet ==

MB 100 | No. 34 Gabriel Guerrero

OF | 2014 Age: 20 | Bats: RH | 6-3, 190

International free agent from Dominican Republic

2013 Ranking: No. 16

Year Age Tm Lev G PA AB H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
2011 17 Mariners FRk 57 206 191 45 9 0 1 14 4 3 14 29 .236 .288 .298 .586
2012 18 2 Teams FRk-Rk 68 305 275 96 14 4 15 72 4 6 24 41 .349 .393 .593 .986
2013 19 Clinton A 125 499 469 127 23 3 4 50 12 3 21 113 .271 .303 .358 .661
3 Seasons 250 1010 935 268 46 7 20 136 20 12 59 183 .287 .327 .415 .742
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/20/2014.

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Spectometer Analysis:

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Strong Prospect > 100
2011 17 “-2” 0.49% 6.80% 11.65% 0.062 14.08% 69 61 30
2012 18 “-1” 4.92% 7.87% 18.69% 0.244 13.44% 113 120 133
2013 19 “-1” 0.80% 4.21% 10.22% 0.087 22.65% 29 48 -23

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Special Sauce:

  • Obviously, most notable for being the nephew of hitting legend Vladimir Guerrero, who retired with 2590 hits and a career .931 OPS.
  • In the last five games of the 2012 season, Gaby went 8-for-19 with 4 home runs.  Needless to say, that got everyone excited about what might come next.

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Commentary:

If you’ve been following our work here in our little corner of the internet, you know we have made much of the “Teen Titans.”  Well, many of the Teen Titans have turned into 20-somethings, and the picture for the hitters is not so titanic (the pitchers are a different story entirely, as we’ll see).

We just had Tim Lopes at No. 38, and guys like Phillips Castillo, Alfredo Morales and Guillermo Pimentel fell all the way to “The Watch List.”  Not a single one of them made positive progress in their 2013 results.  To some extent they were over-hyped, but there may be some systematic flaw as well.

Anyway, there is still hope that Guerrero is different, if for no other reason than his swing resembles his uncle’s, and — until 2013 — he also shared Vlad’s aversion to strikeouts.

Along with Lopes, he was aggressively placed at Low-A Clinton, where Nick Franklin starred as a 19-year-old.  Neither one could live up to the Franklin template, though.  Then again, neither did Marcus Littlewood when he was placed at Clinton at 19, and he made a nice recovery in 2013 in his second tour there at 21.

But at the end of the day, the only time Guerrero has excelled on U.S. soil was that five-game blast at the end of 2012, so we’ve got to re-set our expectations a bit.  He’s still got time, but Uncle V. was tearing up AA at age-21 so he doesn’t appear to be on that track.

Gaby still has the potential for a major bust-out, but so far it’s just potential.

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Extra Innings:

Vlad had his own song!  Amazing what you can find on this internet thing.  Boy, he was a lot skinnier in 1999, but the swing was the same.

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