Franklin to Rays? Are There Any Hitter Targets?

Pteromylaeus_bovinus_valencia== Welcome to Interesting Ray Minor-League Bats.  Population: 1. ==

Earlier we got a chance to run some numbers on the Tampa Bay Rays pitching prospects, and now we move on to the hitters.  All of which, of course, is to get a sense of whom we may wish to “root for” as return for a trade of Nick Franklin (should that occur).

And, except for the one obvious choice, the pickin’s — as they say — are slim.  At least in terms of Spectometer results.

Indeed, only that one hitter from the Top 10 lists bubbles to the top of our analytical scan.

Luckily for the Rays, it’s Wil Myers, the top prospect they pried from Kansas City in the James Shields trade.

Here’s what our spreadsheet turned up:

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Strong Prospect > 100
Thomas Coyle* 22 “+2” 1.09% 16.49% 23.37% 0.127 14.13% 144 93 137
Curt Casali 24 “+2” 3.04% 11.85% 20.36% 0.172 14.89% 122 101 123
Alejandro Segovia 23 “+2” 3.21% 10.09% 18.58% 0.176 15.14% 110 96 106
Joey Rickard 22 “+2” 1.43% 13.95% 21.47% 0.139 17.53% 119 85 104
Taylor Motter 23 “+2” 1.19% 9.52% 17.86% 0.131 11.90% 105 91 96
Wil Myers 22 “-1” 4.84% 10.03% 20.07% 0.234 24.57% 92 101 94
Luke Maile 22 “+2” 0.98% 10.07% 17.94% 0.119 13.27% 103 87 90

Thoughts:

  • The only guy who graded well and was young for his level was Myers, and he was drug down by a high K-rate.
  • The Rays are darn good at developing guys with plate skills.  Super-high walk rates and super-low strikeout rates across the board (except Myers).  But nobody’s hitting the ball hard.  Amazingly, Myers’ 101 was the highest production rating in the entire organization among players in U.S. leagues.

In all, a very tepid group outside of Myers (have we said that already?).  Would the Rays give up Myers for Nick Franklin?  I don’t think so.

Well, since the Top 10 lists aren’t populated by the above guys (except Myers — did we say that?), who is on the lists? We’ll go ahead an run a second spreadsheet for those guys.  The stats for Hak-Ju Lee are from 2012, since he only played in 15 games in 2013.

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Strong Prospect > 100
Hak-Ju Lee 2012 21 “-1” 0.75% 9.55% 14.98% 0.099 19.10% 75 63 38
Nick Ciuffo 18 “-1” 0.00% 5.33% 9.47% 0.050 23.67% 26 35 -40
Mikie Mahtook 23 “+1” 1.23% 7.57% 15.49% 0.132 17.96% 73 76 49
Andrew Toles 21 “+1” 0.36% 3.99% 13.59% 0.140 19.02% 44 77 21
Ryan Brett 21 “-1” 2.04% 6.71% 15.16% 0.152 12.54% 88 92 80

At least most of the guys were young for their levels, but they weren’t performing like elite prospects.

To be fair, Brett’s numbers are pretty good for a middle infielder, but nothing too flashy.

So … in the context of a Franklin trade, I don’t think the M’s will be looking to the Rays for offensive help from the minors.

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7 thoughts on “Franklin to Rays? Are There Any Hitter Targets?

    • Sure. I wouldn’t see the Rays giving up a guy with an MLB track record and three more years of club control for Franklin alone, but as part of a bigger deal he looks attractive on the surface (RH-hitting OF). I’d have to do more analysis, but at first glance he’s an interesting player.

      Thanks!

  1. Could you, for reference, run Nick Franklin into this same system to see give a nice visual where lines up in comparison to these guys?

      • Why does Wil Meyer rate highly for you, but Franklin, with very similar numbers (especially if you just look at LH at bats) gives you an over all “Meh”? Wil Meyers was traded to the Rays and immediately had impact for the Rays… Franklin was called up to them M’s and… immediately had a nice impact (until he got hurt). I say just let the young man play! Give him a OF glove and let him Zobrist his way to several All star games, until Seager gets expensive and we trade him for prospects and then Franklin takes over at 3rd…

  2. “Meh”? I said his upside is “formidable” and “huge” — just dependent on improving RH from ugly to adequate. Not saying he can’t, just saying he hasn’t yet. His overall numbers have been drug down by a RH ISO under .100 every single year, and it was the same in the majors last year. LH Franklin is awesome, and I have never not said so.

    But the Myers numbers in the post were just from 2013. Check out his 2012 and the .600 SLG. Franklin didn’t even do anything like that in his monster year in Clinton in 2010.

    Hope that doesn’t sound snarky. Always good to hear from our top Beaver fan.

  3. Hey Jim, sounds like the Yankees are sniffing around everyone else’s middle infielders. Would you consider doing the same sort of evaluation of Yankees trade prospects? (Sounds like they are catcher-heavy!)

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