MB100 | 26 in the Mix | Kelly, Mack, Marder, McCoy

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== The Mix Keeps Going ==

Here’s another quartet of denizens of “the Mix.”

  • A journeyman who gets on base.
  • A familiar name who needs to get off his downward trajectory.
  • And a couple of “new guys” who made their mark after the 2013 draft.

As always, the whole list can be found on the “MB100” page linked above.

===

Ty Kelly | Infielder | 2014 age: 25  | SH

Traditional Hitting Statistics

Year Age Lvl G PA AB H 2b 3b HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
2009 20 A- 61 271 226 60 5 1 1 33 29 0.265 0.357 0.310 0.667
2010 21 A 129 571 487 126 30 6 4 68 81 0.259 0.352 0.370 0.721
2011 22 A 120 534 457 125 13 0 4 67 63 0.274 0.369 0.328 0.697
2012 23 3 lvl 133 563 471 154 29 2 11 79 72 0.327 0.425 0.467 0.892
2013 24 2 lvl 126 595 480 143 27 3 4 102 90 0.298 0.417 0.392 0.809

Spectometer Analysis

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Stong Prospect > 100
2009 20 “+1” 0.37% 12.18% 14.76% 0.045 10.70% 111 60 71
2010 21 “+1” 0.70% 11.91% 18.91% 0.111 14.19% 110 82 92
2011 22 “+2” 0.75% 12.55% 15.73% 0.054 11.80% 113 65 78
2012 23 “+1” 1.95% 14.03% 21.49% 0.140 12.79% 136 96 132
2013 24 “+1” 0.67% 17.14% 22.86% 0.094 15.13% 141 80 121

Kelly came over from Baltimore in a trade for outfielder Eric Thames.  He’s played a majority of his games at third, but has substantial time at second and in left.  If he makes it, it will be as a utility guy.

As you can see, Kelly spent three years as an on-base specialist and nothing more.  Then, finally, at 23, he started to add enough pop to his game to make him interesting.

I’m always skeptical of guys who don’t start to look like prospects until they’re 23 and older than a lot of the pitchers they’re facing.  Plus, unlike Jamodrick McGruder, whom we saw yesterday with a similar profile, Kelly doesn’t really add speed.

And the problem with a utility role is that, unlike Willie Bloomquist, he’s never been a shortstop.

Other than that, and I mean that sincerely, there’s a lot to like.  Getting on base is a valuable skill.

===

Chantz Mack | OF | LH

Traditional Hitting Statistics

Year Age Lvl G PA AB H 2b 3b HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
2013 22 3 lvl 53 219 186 52 14 1 2 24 55 0.280 0.366 0.398 0.764

Spectometer Analysis

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Stong Prospect > 100
2013 22 “0” 0.91% 10.96% 18.72% 0.118 25.11% 73 59 32

What did Mack do besides get on base at a nice clip?  Not much really.  But the Miami University product got an out-of-the-blue cameo promotion to AA Jackson, meaning someone on the organization wanted to see more of him.

It might not mean much, but Ji-Man Choi and Ketel Marte had similar promotions in prior years, so you never know.  He’ll need to be a center fielder to make it unless he adds more to his offensive game.

Video uploaded from his nephew’s phone!

===

Jack Marder | Infielder/Outfielder[/Catcher?] | RH

Traditional Hitting Statistics

Year Age Lvl G PA AB H 2b 3b HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
2011 21 A+ 18 81 71 23 6 0 2 2 12 0.324 0.380 0.493 0.873
2012 22 A+ 65 319 278 100 24 4 10 21 44 0.360 0.425 0.583 1.008
2013 23 AA 90 315 275 60 10 2 4 24 59 0.218 0.298 0.313 0.610

Spectometer Analysis

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Slugger > 4% Goal > 8.5% Goal > 19% Goal > .200 Goal < 20% Stong Prospect > 100
2011 21 “0” 2.47% 2.47% 12.35% 0.169 14.81% 57 83 40
2012 22 “+1” 3.13% 6.58% 18.50% 0.223 13.79% 96 114 111
2013 23 “+1” 1.27% 7.62% 12.70% 0.095 18.73% 65 55 20

You can’t learn the lesson too many times: be skeptical of stats from High Desert.

That being said, I didn’t think that Marder would drop off quite so much.

But even worse for Marder is that the one thing that gave him the most “helium” — his ability to play catcher and other positions (mostly second base) — seems to be gone.  He only played behind the plate in one game in 2013.

Without that, and with his bat in post-desert depression, he didn’t look like a prospect at all.  But he is hard to strike out, and if he regains some stroke, he could still get in the mix as an infield/outfield guy.  Or maybe he’ll get more shots as a catcher.  But he’ll need to reverse course this year.

Here’s a college-era profile from his Oregon Duck days:

===

Kevin McCoy | Reliever | RH

Traditional Pitching Statistics

Year Age Lvl W L ERA G SV IP H HR BB K WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9
2013 21 Rk-AA 2 1 2.49 16 4 25.1 18 0 12 37 1.18 6.40 0.00 4.30 13.10

Spectometer Analysis

Year Age Lvl HR% BB% XBH + BB% ISO K% PSA+ Conv+ Comp
Age Arc Goal < 1% Goal < 6% Goal < 14% Goal < .100 Goal > 20% Strong prospect > 100
2013 21 Rk-AA “-1” 0.00% 11.11% 14.81% 0.054 34.26% 136 150 186

One of the things we’ve noticed is the current regime’s tendency to snag hard-throwing pitchers out of smaller college programs.  Stephen Pryor, Carter Capps and Carson Smith being three current examples.  And here comes McCoy out of Kennesaw State in Georgia.

Like Mack, McCoy earned a massive promotion to AA late in the year (he only pitched in one game there), which throws off the “age arc” analysis, but also shows that someone was paying attention.

But the damage that McCoy did to earn his huge numbers was done against less-experienced hitters, so he still has plenty to prove.

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